The Urgent Need for Long-Term Thinking and Action: Countering the Futures Thieves

Jost Wagner*

Special Edition

And while we are navigating the challenges facing humanity (some of us use the term polycrisis), we appear to be living in a world rattled by political polarization, resurgent authoritarianism, fake news, and widespread disinformation. As humanity stumbles through overlapping crises—from climate breakdown and global conflict to AI disruption and democratic backsliding—we need people whose job is to look beyond the noise, beyond the next election cycle, and into the long view.

If we look around, some—if not many—of the most influential leaders in politics and society appear ignorant or indifferent to these challenges. Many are consciously or unconsciously stuck in the present, victims of temporal exhaustion. Worse, some actively limit our imagination, suppress critical thinking, and hijack the future for narrow political or economic gain. They tell us there is no alternative. That the future is fixed. That nothing can change.

I have developed my own personal term for these people: I call them Futures Thieves.

Definition of Futures Thieves

Futures thieves are individuals creating or strengthening systems, or narratives, that rob others—especially future generations or marginalized groups—of the opportunity to shape or benefit from desirable futures. They limit imagination, concentrate decision-making power, and promote short-term gains at the expense of long-term well-being. By doing so, they make certain futures inaccessible, unjust, or unsustainable.

I am sure I am preaching to the converted: The future isn’t a luxury. It’s a necessity.

Futures literacy—which I define as the ability to understand, imagine, and navigate alternative futures—is no longer optional. It is a fundamental capability for survival and sustainability.

Therefore, I believe the role of futurists is more essential than ever. We must play a pivotal role in creating futures that are inclusive and sustainable. Every futures thinking workshop we facilitate, every scenario process we support, every youth futures dialogue we hold is an important action. It is asserting our agency—our ability to shape what comes next.

The future isn’t a luxury. It’s a necessity.

What Makes a Futurist?

1. Futurists as Facilitators and Catalysts of Social Change

Futurists should not only help to predict what might happen—they should work on what should happen. Futurists can facilitate creative thinking, scenarios, and imagination to explore multiple possible futures. They can help decision-makers as well as communities reflect on their own values, develop preferred alternatives, and plan actions that make these preferred futures more likely. Rather than waiting passively, communities can act intentionally.

2. Futurists as Vision-Builders

Guiding images are shared visions of what a better future could look like. Futurists help societies imagine and articulate these visions, giving people direction and purpose.

• Futurist Andy Hines (head of the University of Houston’s foresight program) explains that societies today are often missing compelling positive visions, and futurists play a critical role in filling that gap by crafting narratives that provide direction, clarity, and hope.

• Sohail Inayatullah, the architect of Narrative Foresight and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), places immense emphasis on the power of metaphors and new stories to open up the future, challenge assumptions, and catalyze transformative action.

  
  

3. Futurists as Resilience Developers

I have just come across the term “futures consciousness” introduced by Sirkka Heinonen as the ability to think critically and ethically about the future. It means being aware of different possible futures, reflecting on one’s role in shaping them, and building resilience. This awareness protects us from being misled by misleading, narrow, or dangerous future narratives—what she calls “misplaced futures.” Futurists can help develop this capacity in individuals and communities.

Futures consciousness is the ability to think critically and ethically about the future.

4. Futurists as Experiential Designers

Futurists help create spaces and processes where people can “act as if” a certain future is already happening. These performances—such as simulations, games, or future labs—allow individuals, organizations, and communities to explore what possible new systems, values, or behaviors might look like. When many people start behaving based on a vision of the future, that vision begins to shape reality. Futures become self-fulfilling, not because they are inevitable, but because they are enacted.

• Jane McGonigal (in Imaginable, 2022) outlines how games and simulations help build “urgent optimism”—a mindset combining urgency with belief in one’s agency. Simulations bridge abstract futures into felt experiences, equipping people emotionally and cognitively to navigate uncertainty.

• Stuart Candy is known for his “Artifacts from the Future” and broader Experiential Futures practice, which uses material design, play, and storytelling to bring future scenarios into the present in tangible ways.

• Simple role-playing and collaboration with creative professionals in workshops are also powerful tools.

  
  

A Call to Action

As futurists, we have a calling to go beyond futures thinking to future-making. We need foresight everywhere: in parliaments, organizations, community halls, and classrooms. We need futurists who are not just strategists but stewards of hope, defenders of possibility, and champions of long-term thinking.

We must become facilitators of change who help society navigate uncertainty, break path dependencies, and forge collective aspirations into real-world transformations.

Many futurists try to remain apolitical and neutral, but we need to be transparent about our values. Our clients need to know with whom they are co-creating futures—and we need to know with whom we are collaborating.

Let us democratize futures thinking. Let us counter those who say the future is fixed, technocratic, or already lost. Each foresight dialogue, each scenario, each dream is an act of countering the Futures Thieves.

Let’s make it a movement. Expand the future. And help ensure it remains a space we all can shape—together.

At the Asia-Pacific Futures Network, our mission is “planting a forest of foresight around the world and explore and envision diverse futures of Asian and Pacific nations, disruptions, and create alternative scenarios.” Let’s counter the Futures Thieves and be strong facilitators for participatory, sustainable, and just futures.

Jost Wagner is the Managing Director of The Change Initiative, a facilitation company located in Bangkok, and the Chief Navigator (aka Executive Director) of the Asia-Pacific Futures Network – Asia’s largest informal network of futurists in the region.

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